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 Forbes , October 31, 2005：投资中国 |
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hwarrensen
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作者：hwarrensen 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Forbes , October 31, 2005：投资中国
10/27/2005
老瓦按：
记得“中国崩溃论” 曾甚嚣尘上，且来看看真正的高手是如何看的：
Rober Hormats以其在Goldman Sachs 23年国际经验，去中国50次, 曾是尼克松和里根时代的外交官。时过知天命之年（62岁），他的结论：
中国是投资该去的地方。
老瓦再加点俺的私货：
1． 从TA的角度看，今年五月中和七月中形成明显的双底。其后的升势当是Elliott第一波.。 眼下该第一波. 上升势似有反转趋势。上指也许可能在1,000~1,200的通道中呆一阵子以形成较平的底。如想投资中国，年底或明年初也许是时候。
2． Forbes文中只提到一些中国公司，然后是一些共同基金，有些收费很高。其实有一不错的工具（我原先曾数次提过），那就是ETF指数，FXI。
另外，个人觉着国人赌性太重。俺总想promote长期投资。至少是投资，而不是赌博。再看《财富》杂志10月17日，
《POWER PLAYS: CASINOS －－ The Man with the Golden Gut》
的断言：“对西方人，赌博是娱乐，概率。对中国人，那是关乎命运的搏斗。”
诸位做何感想？
再来看看数字：
今年澳门的赌博营业额将达600亿美元，超过Las Vegas的营业额。
更值得关注的是，澳门只有1,400张赌桌, 10,000个旅馆房间。而Las Vegas有2,600张赌桌, 135,000个旅馆房间！
长叹息以掩涕兮，哀生民之多艰！
https://www.forbes.com/forbes/2005/1031/079.html
Money & Investing
The China Hand
Robert Lenzner, 10.31.05
Sooner or later, says Goldman's Robert Hormats, buyers of Chinese stocks will get returns that match the growth performance of the Chinese economy.
The dapper and urbane Robert Hormats has visited China 50 times. In a diplomatic career under presidents ranging from Richard Nixon to Ronald Reagan, and as one of Goldman Sachs' prominent faces on the international scene for the past 23 years, Hormats is steeped in perspective. At 62, he knows one thing well: China is a great place to invest.
Now nobody doubts that China is a growth machine, with an economy expanding at a 9% annual clip. If it maintains that pace, the economy will overtake the American economy (growing at 4%) by midcentury. China's plentiful and cheap labor, plus a huge domestic consumer market, portend a bountiful future.
But China also has a well-deserved rep as a hairy place to invest in stocks. First, the Beijing government severely limits foreign purchases of shares in its companies (often controlled by the state), and financial reporting is suspect. Second, corruption, bad-loan-ridden banks, pollution, poverty and joblessness could stir social unrest and disrupt this growth. Third, in a land where intellectual property rights are a joke, investors are wary, thus casting further doubt upon the rosy predictions.
Hormats, though, believes China will surmount these weaknesses. After all, he has been anticipating a muscular Chinese economic expansion for years. He recalls meeting with Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the 1970s, when the nation still was recovering from the shambles of the Cultural Revolution and hordes had fled to live and study elsewhere. "When our thousands of Chinese students abroad return home, you will see how China will transform itself," Deng told him. Until two centuries ago, Hormats says, China had the world's largest economy, so it views the current surge as reclaiming its rightful due.
After getting his Ph.D. in international economics from Tufts' Fletcher School, Hormats went to work for Henry Kissinger, Nixon's national security adviser. One lesson Kissinger taught him was how to deal with China's immense pride, which the pushy American style can wound. "The Chinese have run their system for 3,000 years without advice from the U.S.," Kissinger told him. "They don't like to be lectured by a country only 200 years old."
With his diplomat's sense of discretion and politesse, Hormats negotiated with numerous world leaders, survived three changes in administration and, despite his Democratic affiliation, rose to assistant secretary of state under Reagan. He still hobnobs with the mighty, such as former Chase Manhattan chief David Rockefeller and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Hormats, a Goldman vice chairman, rises at 6 a.m. and spends two hours phoning his contacts around the world for insights and business leads. Although he speaks little Chinese, he has helped land two big mainland bond issues for Goldman.
Hormats finds striking parallels between the bustling, brawling U.S. of the early 1900s and present-day China. Way back, he notes, the U.S. was a swarming hive of stock manipulation and poor financial reporting, where corrupt officials, environmental desecration and huge private trusts ruled. He also detects an apt comparison to Japan in the heady growth years from 1960 to 1980, when cheap labor and vast energy created the first Asian economic Goliath.
Hormats recounts how equity investors benefited fabulously from America's and Japan's early growth spurts. To be sure, the timing has to be right. Someone buying into the Japanese market at its peak 16 years ago is now out most of his money (not counting currency appreciation). Chinese stocks have disappointed in recent years. After an updraft in the late 1990s mainland exchanges are back trading at their 1997 levels.
For investors, the best part of the U.S. and Japan rapid-growth eras was that average annual stock appreciation outstripped economic expansion. From 1926 (the first year of good data) until now the U.S. economy grew 2% annually and the market went up 10.4% per year, including dividends and subtracting inflation. For Japan in the two decades up to 1980 the economy increased 7.5% per year and the Nikkei stock index 12.9%. University of Pennsylvania professor Jeremy Siegel estimates that the total stock market capitalization of China (excluding Hong Kong), now $470 billion, will rise to $70 trillion (in current dollars) by 2050, catching up with that of the U.S., now $16.3 trillion.
Hormats concedes that buying shares on a wild-and-woolly Chinese exchange is usually a bad idea. For now he prefers stocks listed on the much more transparent Hong Kong exchange or the New York Stock Exchange (see table above). The Chinese political and business leaders know they must make bookkeeping more transparent and exchanges more open. Added pressure will come from the increasing crowd of wealthy Chinese folks, who have large savings and no good place to put them. "We're not there yet," Hormats says, "but we're moving in the right direction."
One reason China's leadership wants to upgrade its capital markets is that their bad reputations have hindered them and hence their ability to raise capital. Most stock markets outside the U.S. have been doing very well lately, with the conspicuous exception of mainland China's. Thus far this year the Shanghai exchange is down 9%, and the Shenzhen bourse is off 11%. The only Chinese exchange that has done well is Hong Kong's: Its Hang Seng Index is up 4% in 2005. Trouble is, the westernized Hong Kong exchange is picky about what mainland companies are included. Smaller businesses have difficulty listing there.
Another reform Hormats expects to happen is an easing of China's capital export controls, which prohibit wealthy Chinese from investing in U.S. stocks. Once China becomes an exporter of investment capital, Hormats thinks it will be a blessing for U.S. stocks, too. Chinese investors, after maxing out on mainland shares, will want to diversify. As professor Siegel has pointed out, retired American baby boomers will need someone to buy securities when they cash out their 401(k) accounts, and there aren't enough younger U.S. investors to absorb all that.
Hormats and Goldman's research group find good Chinese investing opportunities for Americans now. The most comfortable route, of course, is to buy stock in non-Chinese companies that have extensive operations on the mainland, like Japan's Mitsubishi and South Korea's Hyundai. China's share of Japanese trade exports has risen to 20%, while the U.S. share of Japanese exports has been declining.
The prospects for China's consumer market are enticing, he enthuses, reeling off several of Goldman's projections. In ten years Chinese consumers will control 29% of the global market for luxury goods, drawing even with Japan's level. Car ownership will grow five times by 2025, which would bring the total number of cars on the road to 200 million. China also will become the world's largest market for mobile phones and digital TVs.
Meanwhile the number of fine Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong and New York makes it easy to build a solid position in the burgeoning nation's most promising companies. Many have fairly affordable price/earnings ratios.
An example is PetroChina (P/E 11), whose stock is held by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway； this American Depositary Receipt has a dividend yield of 5% and is benefiting from higher oil prices and increased demand in China. Another resource-heavy ADR play is Aluminum Corp. of China, its goods in much demand as China's industrial base enlarges.
For investors who don't want to pick individual stocks, there are worthy mutual funds (see p. 80) like Templeton Dragon, a closed-end trading at a 10% discount, and the newer Templeton China World. You pay for China World's good performance: It charges high fees, 2.14% of assets yearly and a 5.75% load. T. Rowe Price New Asia is another way in. Although it has only 7% in China, it owns Asian stocks that will benefit from the China boom. Look to the East
The most exciting Chinese stocks easily available to Americans, per Goldman and T. Rowe Price. A Helping Hand
If you want the pros to do it, these funds are good at navigating the new world of Chinese investments.
作者：hwarrensen 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 Forbes , October 31, 2005：投资中国 -- hwarrensen - (9392 Byte) 2005-10-28 周五, 02:36 (2235 reads)
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