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主题: [转帖]the big pciture of housing and finacials
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作者 [转帖]the big pciture of housing and finacials   
theoretical
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头衔: 海归上校

头衔: 海归上校
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加入时间: 2006/10/13
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文章标题: [转帖]the big pciture of housing and finacials (1701 reads)      时间: 2008-8-04 周一, 12:32
  

作者:theoretical海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com

归网上的熊不多啦,只好自己给自己壮胆喽,道穷死10800时漫山遍野的熊,这会儿都披上牛皮了。队伍散了,不好带喽。废话不说,这个MM俺觉得很有味道。

the big pciture of housing and finacials
Video source CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808357964

Whitney says (loosely transcribed):

Fed knows there is no quick fix. Every time they open window they lose fire power for next crisis. There is not much capital out there that wants to rescue brokers.
I keep saying we are less than 50% done with this crisis and are still there.
All capital raised by banks so far ($450 billion) was only to plug holes and not to grow business.
All banks ‘assets’ marked at unrealistic levels
Creditors have cut mortgages and credit lines to the areas with the worst house prices depreciation. That will hurt consumers even more.
Corporate loan market will get hit soon as well.
Maria was prodding to find out how quickly the stock prices going back to the highs. Pump Pump Pump! Whitney says: There is no way the bank stocks will return to the highs in next 3-years. No comment on 5-years out. (Whitney seemed frustrated with the question being so shallow)
The brokers are not growing capital and diluting the share holder. They can’t grow earnings that way.
Merrill raised tremendous amount of capital just to plug holes. They still have to shed asset and are not out of woods yet.
Most every bank has to write down assets like Merrill and raise capital.
Banks who got in bed with housing assets such as C, UBS, MER, BAC, WB will be in the market ’soon’ to do another capital raise.
Everyone was involved in mortgages. All of these banks are in trouble now.
25 institutions will have to raise capital in next two months.
Banks will cut dividend’s. I don’t understand why banks raise capital and then still pay a dividend. It is not prudent for board members to keep paying when they are so capital restrained.
Fannie Freddie in same situation as every other institution. All banks are betting on house price assumptions that are far too optimistic. No banks are close to Case-Shiller.
Due to bank’s bath math, losses will apply to everyone across the board.
In 2006-07 $2.5 trillion was securitized. Nobody can replace this mortgage money and housing prices will continue to suffer as a result.
When Maria asked if Lehman will survive, she said “huh huh huh huh huh huh I don’t know.”
I am very opinionated on the short selling rule. If you want to have faith in the capital market there has to be two sides to every trade and people have to be able to hedge. Restricting free trade will have the opposite effect and endanger the markets.

作者:theoretical海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com









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